1. Intense environmental pressures will persist

The number one projection was that environmental pressures are going to be immense. Back in Dec-2019, that was seen as the number one issue for the period to 2030.

2. Distribution disruption

The second point was likely disruption of the airline distribution systems, which is really where the money comes from. Because it's not just about flying and cost. It's about revenues. That system has been in need of disruption for a long time.

3. Network transformation

And then the third major disruptive force, the likely transformation of international networks as long haul, low-cost aircraft are introduced to the market.

None of those should be particularly controversial, but it's important, I think, to remember them because we're so focused on recovering from COVID-19 that it's perhaps easy to forget these other priorities were there – and they won’t go away.

(In the Dec-2019 Airline Leader, our fourth major prospect for the decade was the long-overdue erosion of national ownership rules. This looks like being a casualty of COVID-19, for the reasons below.)

Source: CAPA