abril 9, 2018
IATA’s strong cargo growth forecast tempered by trade war threat
Growing at 4.9% annually through 2022

The medium-term outlook for global air cargo demandremains strong, but the industry is watching several key variables that could have major implications on air freight trends, including how the escalating tariff battle between the US and China might affect shipping patterns.

IATA, in its latest five-year forecast, sees global freight-tonne kilometers (FTKs) growing at 4.9% annually through 2022, bolstered by “a stronger economic and trade backdrop” than industry had during much of the 2013-17 period.

The end of that five-year run was strong: Full-year 2017 demand for air freight grew 9%— twice the pace of the expansion in world trade (4.3%). The start to 2018 has been similarly positive, with global FTKs up 7.7% through February, IATA figures show.

But the steady climb faces a quickly emerging threat: A trade war that could draw in some of the world’s largest national economies. The US and China—the world’s top two single-country economies—have traded salvos that, should both sides follow through, would place tariffs on hundreds of goods, ranging from raw materials to entire aircraft. Thus far, the direct threat to commercial aviation appears purposefully muted, with China, for example, setting very careful parameters that would place tariffs on only certain, smaller US-made commercial aircraft.

This apparent carving-out of aircraft production—China relies on Boeing for about half of its new orders, and large backlogs at both Boeing and Airbus make switching allegiances a costly proposition—leaves air freight as arguably the most threatened sector in commercial aviation.

“After decades of globalization and the breaking down of borders, there is a risk that policymakers continue down a more inward-looking path,” IATA wrote in its forecast, which was released in late March, just as the tariff threats were heating up. “Certainly, recent years have seen politicians embrace more national solutions; the recent imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by the US are a case in point. Once again, a pick-up in protectionism would weaken the underlying operating environment for air freight in the coming years.”

Analysts’ views vary on how the tariff battle will play out on a sector-by-sector basis. But most agree that the largest general threat is the knock-on effect on the global economy.

“We continue to view the absolute risk level as low, but the potential for rapid escalation of the dispute is concerning,” Canaccord Genuity's Ken Herbert wrote. “There does remain a broader risk to the macroeconomic backdrop.”

If the tariff troubles amount to little—and right now, China and the US have proposed tariffs, not levied them—air freight’s already strong prospects have even more upside, IATA said. One of the reasons: FTKs have out-grown global trade growth consistently since 2014. The long-term trend has FTKs growing at a pace just under trade growth’s, with spikes during upturns—driven by restocking and other time-critical factors that favor air freight—offset by modal shifts during stable times.

“The bulk of this out-performance has not been explainable by the usual ‘cyclical’ indicators of demand,” IATA said. “This suggests that other factors—potentially the increasing importance of areas such as e-commerce and pharmaceuticals—are helping air freight growth to ‘decouple’ from global goods trade.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees global goods trade growth averaging 3.9% annually through 2022, up from 3.1% from 2012-17. Real GDP will be at 3.1%, up from 2.8%.

IATA notes that prior to the last global financial crisis a decade ago, goods trade’s annual growth rate would typically be twice that of GDP. Should this pattern resume and air freight maintain its recent pace out ahead of goods trade expansion, the air-cargo market could grow even more quickly than projected.

Source: ATWonline / April 2018

Barcelona Air Route Development Committee

promotes Barcelona Airport intercontinental flight

SELECTION*
ARE YOU AN AIRLINE REPRESENTATIVE?
PRIVACY POLICY: The information contained in this message and/or attachment(s), sent from GESTIO I PROMOCIO AEROPORTUARIA (GPA), is confidential/privileged and is intended to be read only by the person(s) to whom it is addressed. We remind you that your data have been incorporated into the processing system of GPA and that as long as the regulatory requirements are met, you may exercise your rights of access, rectification, limitation of processing, suppression (“right to be forgotten”), portability, opposition, and revocation, under the terms established by the current and applicable regulations on data protection, by sending your request to the postal address DIAGONAL AV,452, 08006, BARCELONA (SPAIN)or by e-mail to Rgpd@gpa.aero .If you read this message and are not the intended recipient, or have received this communication in error, please be advised that any disclosure, distribution, or reproduction of this communication is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful, and we request that you notify us immediately and return the original message to us at the above address. Thank you.
ACCEPT*

THANKS

img_avio

Thank you for contacting Barcelona Links. We confirm that we have received your request correctly. We will answer you as soon as possible.

Legal notice
In the following Institutions
SELECCIONI**
ETS UN REPRESENTANT DE LA LINEA AÈRIA?
POLÍTICA DE PRIVADESA: La informació continguda en aquest missatge i/o arxiu(s) adjunt(s), enviada des de GESTIO I PROMOCIO AEROPORTUÀRIA (GPA), és confidencial/privilegiada i està destinada a ser llegida només per la(s) persona(s) a la(s) que va dirigida. Li recordem que les seves dades han estat incorporats en el sistema de tractament de GPA i que sempre que es compleixin els requisits exigits per la normativa, vostè podrà exercir els seus drets d’accés, rectificació, limitació de tractament, supressió (“dret a l’oblit”), portabilitat, oposició i revocació, en els termes que estableix la normativa vigent i aplicable en matèria de protecció de dades, dirigint la seva petició a l’adreça postal AVDA DIAGONAL,452, 08006, BARCELONA o bé a través de correu electrònic Rgpd@gpa.aero . Si vostè no és el destinatari assenyalat o ha rebut aquesta comunicació per error, l’informem que està totalment prohibida, i pot ser il·legal, qualsevol divulgació, distribució o reproducció d’aquesta comunicació, i li preguem que ens ho notifiqui immediatament i ens retorni el missatge original a l’adreça a dalt esmentada. Gràcies.
ACCEPTAR*
SELECCIONE*
¿ERES UN REPRESENTANTE DE LA LINEA AÉREA?
POLÍTICA DE PRIVACIDAD: La información contenida en este mensaje y/o archivo(s) adjunto(s), enviada desde GESTIO I PROMOCIO AEROPORTUARIA (GPA), es confidencial/privilegiada y está destinada a ser leída sólo por la(s) persona(s) a la(s) que va dirigida. Le recordamos que sus datos han sido incorporados en el sistema de tratamiento de GPA y que siempre y cuando se cumplan los requisitos exigidos por la normativa, usted podrá ejercer sus derechos de acceso, rectificación, limitación de tratamiento, supresión (“derecho al olvido”), portabilidad, oposición y revocación, en los términos que establece la normativa vigente y aplicable en materia de protección de datos, dirigiendo su petición a la dirección postal AVDA DIAGONAL,452, 08006, BARCELONA o bien a través de correo electrónico RGPD@gpa.aero . Si usted no es el destinatario señalado o ha recibido la comunicación por error, le informamos que está totalmente prohibida, y puede ser ilegal, cualquier divulgación, distribución o reproducción de esta comunicación, y le rogamos que nos lo notifique inmediatamente y nos devuelva el mensaje original a la dirección arriba mencionada. Gracias.
ACEPTAR*