Global FTKs up 6% in Oct-2017, strongest performance since 2010 expected in 4Q2017 (IATA)

Global FTKs increased 5.9% year-on-year in Oct-2017

(01-Dec-2017)  IATA reported global FTKs increased 5.9% year-on-year in Oct-2017, down from 9.2% in Sep-2017 but exceeding the average annual rate of 3.2% over the last decade. Airlines in all regions reported growth in demand, but international freight growth slowed in all regions except Africa. AFTKs increased 3.7%, marking the 15th consecutive month in which FTKs outgrew capacity, “which is positive for load factors, yields, and financial performance”, according to IATA. The association stated: “While cargo demand remains strong, several indicators show that we may have passed the growth peak”, noting the inventory to sales ratio in the US is “tracking sideways”, indicating the period in which companies restock inventories quickly has ended. New export orders are stable and the upward trend in seasonally adjusted volumes has moderated. IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said: “Tightening supply conditions in the fourth quarter should see the air cargo industry deliver its strongest operational and financial performance since the post-global financial crisis rebound in 2010”. IATA said freight volumes are expected to grow at a slower pace in 2018 than 2017 and noted the following regional details for Oct-2017:

  • Africa: African carriers recorded the largest year-on-year increase in demand of all regions in Oct-2017. International volumes increased 28.5%, more than three times the five year average of 9.4%. Demand was boosted by strong growth to and from Asia, which increased more than 67% in the first nine months of 2017;
  • Asia Pacific: Demand is now around 3% higher than the post financial crisis peak in 2010. The region’s manufacturers continue to enjoy buoyant order books and major exporters in China and Japan are reporting growing backlogs, supported in part by stronger economic activity in Europe;
  • Europe: Volume growth slowed from Sep-2017 to Oct-2017 but remained ahead of the five year average. Concerns that recent strengthening of the euro might affect the region’s exporters have not materialised. Export orders are growing at the fastest pace in more than seven years. Freight demand remains healthy on trans Atlantic routes and strong on routes to and from Asia, with a boost in trade from economic stimulus measures in China;
  • Latin America: International volumes increased 7.7%, nearly nine times the five year average of 0.9%. The pick up in demand reflects signs of recovery in Brazil. Seasonally adjusted international volumes are back to levels seen at the end of 2014;
  • Middle East: International volume growth slowed from Sep-2017 to Oct-2017. Recent volatility in year-on-year international volume growth is due to developments in demand in 2016 rather than a marked change in the current traffic trend. Seasonally adjusted international volumes continued to trend upwards at 8% to 10% over the past six months;
  • North America: Volume growth slowed from Sep-2017 to Oct-2017 but remained ahead of the five year average. The strength of the US economy and US dollar boosted the inbound freight market in recent years. Air imports increased 11.6% and export orders increased 6.5% in the first nine months of 2017, according to the US Census Bureau.








Total Market 100.0% 5.9% 3.7% 1.0​% 46.9%
Africa 1.6% 30.3% 9.2% 4.3% 26.8%
Asia Pacific 37.4% 4.4% 3.9% ​0.3% 56.0%
Europe 23.5​% 6.4% 2.5% 1.8% 48.7%
Latin America 2.8% 7.2% 4.4% 1.0% 37.5%
Middle East 13.9% 4.6% 3.4% 0.6% 47.2%
North America 20.7% 6.6% 3.8​% 1.0% 37.9​%

Source: CAPA / December 2017

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